Real-time risk ranking of emerging epidemics based on optimized moving average prediction limit-taking the COVID-19 pandemic as an example.

BACKGROUND: Mathematical models to forecast the risk trend of the COVID-19 pandemic timely are of great significance to control the pandemic, but the requirement of manual operation and many parameters hinders their efficiency and value for application. This study aimed to establish a convenient and prompt one for monitoring emerging infectious diseases online and achieving risk assessment in real time. METHODS: The Optimized Moving Average Prediction Limit (Op-MAPL) algorithm model analysed real-time COVID-19 data online and was validated using the data of the Delta variant in India and the Omicron in the United States. Then, the model was utilized to determine the infection risk level of the Omicron in Shanghai and Beijing. RESULTS: The Op-MAPL model can predict the epidemic peak accurately. The daily risk ranking was stable and predictive, with an average accuracy of 87.85% within next 7 days. Early warning signals were issued for Shanghai and Beijing on February 28 and April 23, 2022, respectively. The two cities were rated as medium-high risk or above from March 27 to April 20 and from April 24 to May 5, indicating that the pandemic had entered a period of rapid increase. After April 21 and May 26, the risk level was downgraded to medium and became stable by the algorithm, indicating that the pandemic had been controlled well and mitigated gradually. CONCLUSIONS: The Op-MAPL relies on nothing but an indicator to assess the risk level of the COVID-19 pandemic with different data sources and granularities. This forward-looking method realizes real-time monitoring and early warning effectively to provide a valuable reference to prevent and control infectious diseases.

Data Model Study for Advancement of Japanese PSI Management Introducing the Concepts of S&OP

Under the impact of COVID-19, the global economy exhibits obvious slowdown. In such situation, the issues on how to keep balance between supply and demand in SCM (Supply Chain Management) operation have been more apparent than before. For SCM rebuilding, S&OP received extensive attention worldwide. However, there are few examples of successful implementation of S&OP in Japan because Japanese have not been growing accustomed to the phrase S&OP, although the challenges in SCM operations and PSI (Product, Sales, Inventory) management are recognized. Thus, no clear and exact solution is found to guide the operation. In order to further improve the current management level, a new design proposal of data model is rendered to advance the current PSI management that introduces the concepts of S&OP. Especially, we will address the motivation why we need use multidimensional database architecture to design the S&OP process instead of using RDB (Relational Database) which is often used in ERP (Enterprise Resource Planning). © 2022 IEEE.

Severe COVID-19 pneumonia leads to post-COVID-19 lung abnormalities on follow-up CT scans.

Purpose: To investigate the association of the maximal severity of pneumonia on CT scans obtained within 6-week of diagnosis with the subsequent development of post-COVID-19 lung abnormalities (Co-LA). Methods: COVID-19 patients diagnosed at our hospital between March 2020 and September 2021 were studied retrospectively. The patients were included if they had (1) at least one chest CT scan available within 6-week of diagnosis; and (2) at least one follow-up chest CT scan available ≥ 6 months after diagnosis, which were evaluated by two independent radiologists. Pneumonia Severity Categories were assigned on CT at diagnosis according to the CT patterns of pneumonia and extent as: 1) no pneumonia (Estimated Extent, 0%); 2) non-extensive pneumonia (GGO and OP, <40%); and 3) extensive pneumonia (extensive OP and DAD, >40%). Co-LA on follow-up CT scans, categorized using a 3-point Co-LA Score (0, No Co-LA; 1, Indeterminate Co-LA; and 2, Co-LA). Results: Out of 132 patients, 42 patients (32%) developed Co-LA on their follow-up CT scans 6-24 months post diagnosis. The severity of COVID-19 pneumonia was associated with Co-LA: In 47 patients with extensive pneumonia, 33 patients (70%) developed Co-LA, of whom 18 (55%) developed fibrotic Co-LA. In 52 with non-extensive pneumonia, 9 (17%) developed Co-LA: In 33 with no pneumonia, none (0%) developed Co-LA. Conclusions: Higher severity of pneumonia at diagnosis was associated with the increased risk of development of Co-LA after 6-24 months of SARS-CoV-2 infection.

COVID-19 Vaccination reduced pneumonia severity.

Purpose: To investigate the effect of vaccinations and boosters on the severity of COVID-19 pneumonia on CT scans during the period of Delta and Omicron variants. Methods: Retrospectively studied were 303 patients diagnosed with COVID-19 between July 2021 and February 2022, who had obtained at least one CT scan within 6 weeks around the COVID-19 diagnosis (-2 to +4 weeks). The severity of pneumonia was evaluated with a 6-point scale Pneumonia Score. The association between demographic and clinical data and vaccination status (booster/additional vaccination, complete vaccination and un-vaccination) and the difference between Pneumonia Scores by vaccination status were investigated. Results: Of 303 patients (59.4 ± 16.3 years; 178 females), 62 (20 %) were in the booster/additional vaccination group, 117 (39 %) in the complete vaccination group, and 124 (41 %) in the unvaccinated group. Interobserver agreement of the Pneumonia Score was high (weighted kappa score = 0.875). Patients in the booster/additionally vaccinated group tended to be older (P = 0.0085) and have more underlying comorbidities (P < 0.0001), and the Pneumonia Scores were lower in the booster/additionally vaccinated [median 2 (IQR 0-4)] and completely vaccinated groups [median 3 (IQR 1-4)] than those in the unvaccinated group [median 4 (IQR 2-4)], respectively (P < 0.0001 and P < 0.0001, respectively). A multivariable linear analysis adjusted for confounding factors confirmed the difference. Conclusion: Vaccinated patients, with or without booster/additional vaccination, had milder COVID-19 pneumonia on CT scans than unvaccinated patients during the period of Delta and Omicron variants. This study supports the efficacy of the vaccine against COVID-19 from a radiological perspective.

An Optimal Model Selection for COVID 19 Disease Classification

In the current scenario, the pandemic created by coronavirus is on the boom, and that is why it becomes very critical to control and cure this disease. The currently available technique for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) testing, i.e., reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR), turns out to be a lot of time-consuming and requires modern labs, equipment, and highly trained medical staff that are rare to get. Chest computerized tomography (CT) is however available with a lot of ease, and it will be fruitful if these machines are used for COVID-19 testing. During this pandemic, there is an absolute need for an efficient and readily accessible way for COVID-19 patients classification, and CT is one of the best ways to do so. Keeping that in fact, this chapter introduces a study for understanding which deep learning models give the best result when classifying COVID-19 patients using chest CT images. For this study, ResNet 50, ResNet 101, DenseNet 121, DenseNet 169, and DenseNet 201 are compared with each other on the basis of classification accuracy, and it has been observed that DenseNet 169 has the tendency to yield best results with the accuracy of 96%. © 2023, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.

An inexpensive and rapid diagnostic method for detection of SARS-CoV-2 RNA by loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP).

SARS-CoV-2 is a public pandemic health concern globally. Nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal swab samples are used for Covid-19 viral detection. Sample collection procedure was tedious and uncomfortable and unsuitable for biochemical and CBC analysis in swab samples. Biochemistry and CBC tests are key determinant in management of Covid-19 patients. We developed a LAMP test to detect viral RNA in blood samples. LAMP is required four specific primers targeting the internal transcribed S-region and loop primers for viral RNA amplification. RNA was extracted from blood samples by TRIzol method. LAMP reaction was performed at 60 °C for 1 hour and amplicons were visualized in HNB dye. No cross-reactivity was seen with HBV, HCV, and HIV infected sample. Out of 40 blood samples, 33 samples were positive for LAMP and Q-PCR analysis, one sample was positive for LAMP and negative for Q-PCR, two samples were negative for LAMP but positive for Q-PCR, and four blood samples were negative for LAMP and Q-PCR. LAMP method has an accuracy of 92.50%, with sensitivity and specificity of 94.28% and 80%, respectively. Thus, LAMP diagnostic test has proved reliable, fast, inexpensive and can be useful for detection where the limited resources available.•LAMP method is a potential tool for detection of SARS-CoV-2.•Blood samples are the key determinant for routine diagnostics as well as molecular diagnostics.•LAMP assay is an appropriate diagnostics method which offers greater simplicity, low cost, sensitivity, and specificity than other methods in molecular diagnostics.

Challenges of Implementing S&OP in a Mid-sized Automotive Components Company: An Action Research Approach.

The purpose of this paper is to present an action research (AR) study of the Sales and Operations Planning (S&OP) implementation in a mid-sized automotive components company located in Brazil. This study provides a detailed empirical exploration of the S&OP implementation steps, challenges and results obtained in the researched context. An AR method was adopted in this work, seeking: (1) to find effective solutions to the dynamics of the specific context faced during the S&OP implementation, and (2) to promote large-scale changes through the engagement of the company and the researcher in the problem. The S&OP implementation presented significant results in the organization, streamlining inventory, and maintaining the service level desired by the company. The reactivity of the S&OP process also led to a quick adaptation to the COVID-19 challenges, which stands out in the operational key performance indicators (KPIs) analyzed in the period. This work contributes to theory and practice by reporting in-depth empirical research on S&OP implementation and its benefits. Practitioners and researchers can benefit from this research by understanding the best practices, challenges, and potential outcomes of implementing S&OP.

Impact of Upgraded Pediatric Operating Room on Surgical Volume in Africa: Evidence from Burkina Faso

INTRODUCTION: Lack of infrastructure drives a large unmet need in children's surgery in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). This study examines the impact of upgrading existing pediatric operating rooms (ORs) on surgical volume in a hospital in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso. METHOD(S): A nongovernmental organization upgraded 3 ORs in September 2019. Surgical volume before and after the upgrade were compared from January 2019 to January 2022 using interrupted time series analysis of a prospective data collection tool. Data from April to May 2020 were omitted owing to COVID-related lockdowns. RESULT(S): After the upgrade, patients were younger (5 vs 3.8 years, p < 0.001) and had lower rate of postoperative sepsis (2.4% vs 0.5%, p < 0.001) and surgical site infection (4.3% vs 2.2%;p = 0.005). Volume increased by 36 cases per month (p = 0.005) from a baseline of 161 cases per month. There was a positive trend of 1 case per month after upgrade and a significant difference between pre- and post- trends in volume (pre-upgrade -8 cases per month vs after upgrade of +1 case per month;p = 0.002). The mortality rate fell from 20% to 4% (p = 0.003) in the month after the upgrade, with a significant difference between pre- and postupgrade mortality rate trends (6.2% vs -1%, p < 0.001). CONCLUSION(S): There was significant improvement in volume and surgical outcomes after the OR upgrade This study supports the investment in surgical infrastructure to strengthen capacity in LMIC. Future work should include risk-adjusted mortality.

The linkage between oil price, stock market indices, and exchange rate before, during, and after COVID-19: Empirical insights of Pakistan

This study analyzes the trilateral relationship between macroeconomic variables of oil prices, stock market index, and exchange rate to demonstrate their behavior and inter-relationship in the economic setup of Pakistan. The investigated period includes daily time series data ranging from 4 January 2016 to 30 April 2021. The study consists of three sub-periods: the pre-COVID-19 period ranging from 4 January 2016 to 31 December 2019, COVID-19 period ranging from 1 January 2020 to 30 April 2021, and overall period ranging from 4 January 2016 to 30 April 2021 by using a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model. The results illustrate that oil prices changes, and stock index have an insignificant direct relationship both in pre-COVID-19 and overall sub-periods of study while a positive and statistically significant relationship during the COVID-19 period. This research also suggests that stock index has a direct and statistically significant but negative impact on the exchange rate in all sub-periods of study. This research also gives practical implications for forex investors and traders to analyze the inflating and deflating stock market patterns for future investment opportunities. However, most of the previous studies emphasized on the direct influence of exchange rate on the stock market and no effort is made on vice versa association. Furthermore, this research presents a practical relevance for the stock market investors that health uncertainty regime affected the insignificant association between oil price and stock market indices and this relation turns out to be significant during the crisis regime.

Enhancing Post-Covid Student Proficiency and Confidence in Using Laboratory Test Equipment

Because of the Covid-19 Pandemic during academic year 2020-2021, many of the classes and laboratories in our undergraduate Electrical Engineering (EE) program were conducted remotely, making tremendous use of videoconferencing technologies such as Microsoft Teams, and simulation engines such as National Instruments' MultiSimTM. As we began to move back to “in person” learning for the Fall of 2021, our EE faculty observed some early weaknesses in student achievement of ABET EE student outcome #6 (an ability to develop and conduct appropriate experimentation, analyze and interpret data, and use engineering judgment to draw conclusions). We found that while students demonstrated excellent proficiency in using modern tools such as MATLABTM and MultiSimTM (which had been used extensively during remote classes), they appeared considerably weaker in making independent measurements using laboratory hardware such as oscilloscopes, dynamic signal analyzers (FFT analyzers), RF analyzers, and even commonly used voltage and current meters (which had not been used much during remote learning). Here we highlight specific student shortcomings we observed in laboratory skills as students began their in-person lab experiences during the Fall 2021 semester. We then discuss our approaches to remedy these shortcomings during the Fall 2021 semester to improve student confidence and proficiency in the use of laboratory instrumentation. We also highlight the improvements we saw in achievement of ABET student outcomes. While computer simulation has its place in undergraduate education, practical testing and measurement of electronic systems does require physical measurement and interaction using modern test equipment, and we identified some areas for timely improvement. Our focus in this paper is on improved student performance in using laboratory test equipment in Linear Circuits and Antennas courses. In the Linear Circuits course, students use the Oscilloscope and Dynamic Signal Analyzer to identify the characteristics of several op-amps and circuits (e.g, op-amp open-loop frequency response, gain-bandwidth product, slew rate, output impedance, closed-loop frequency response of an inverting amplifier), and in the in the Antennas course students use the RF analyzer to characterize the behavior of RF circuits, transmission lines and antennas. We show how our increased emphasis on lab skills for the Fall 2021 semester, coupled with unique assessment tools, significantly improved achievement of student outcome #6. More specifically we share the successes we experienced in using oral individual quizzes during lab meetings, group classroom quizzes, individual student observation of setup and measurement, and adding questions related to lab skills and experiences on hourly examinations. © American Society for Engineering Education, 2022

Bio-inspired Soft (BIS) Hand for Tele-operated COVID-19 Oropharyngeal (OP) Swab Sampling

The lasting difficulty imposed by the COVID-19 pandemic has made profound challenges to our daily lives. The prominent task to contend with the COVID-19 is the diagnosis of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. The timely diagnosis guides further anti-infection measurements such as effective quarantine and dedicated therapy. Existing diagnosis majorly relies on manual face-to-face Oropharyngeal (OP) and Nasopharyngeal (NP) sampling, which results in high infection risk and heavy working burden to medical staff. Robotic sampling is a promising solution for this challenge because robots are intrinsically immune to viruses and working without fatigue. Following this target, we demonstrate our novel teleoperated OP swab sampling system with excellent safety guarantees, quick deployability, and task efficacy. A bio-inspired soft hand integrated with a soft wrist is developed, which can pick and manipulate the disposable swab as dexterous as a human hand. Stereo imaging is provided to the operator by a terminal binocular camera. The design, working mechanism, and control of our sampling system are discussed. Results show that our proposed robotic sampling system promises safe and effective OP swab sampling to protect medical staff and convenient the sampling process.

San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium 2021-44th Annual Meeting Virtual/San Antonio - December 7-10, 2021

The 2021 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium was run as a hybrid meeting allowing its attendees to participate both in person at the Henry B. Gonzalez Convention Center, San Antonio, Texas, and virtually, taking into consideration the safety of attendees due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. The symposium provided state-of-the-art information on etiology, experimental biology, diagnosis, prevention and treatment of breast cancer, as well as premalignant breast diseases.

Pollution characteristics and sources of environmentally persistent free radicals and oxidation potential in fine particulate matter related to city lockdown (CLD) in Xi'an, China.

The impact of COVID-19 control on air quality have been prevalent for the past two years, however few studies have explored the toxicity of atmospheric particulate matter during the epidemic control. Therefore, this research highlights the characteristics and sources of oxidative potential (OP) and the new health risk substances environmentally persistent free radicals (EPFRs) in comparison to city lockdown (CLD) with early days of 2019-2020. Daily particulate matter (PM2.5) samples were collected from January 14 to February 3, 2020, with the same period during 2019 in Xi'an city. The results indicated that the average concentration of PM2.5 decreased by 48% during CLD. Concentrations of other air pollutants and components, such as PM10, NO2, SO2, WSIs, OC and EC were also decreased by 22%, 19%, 2%, 17%, 6%, and 4% respectively during the CLD, compared to the same period in 2019. Whereas only O3 increased by 30% during CLD. The concentrations of EPFRs in PM2.5 was considerably lower than in 2019, which decreased by 12% during CLD. However, the OP level was increased slightly during CLD. Moreover, both EPFRs/PM and DTTv/PM did not decrease or even increase significantly, manifesting that the toxicity of particulate matter has not been reduced by more gains during the CLD. Based on PMF analysis, during the epidemic period, the contribution of traffic emission is significantly reduced, while EPFRs and DTTv increased, which consist of significant O3 and secondary aerosols. This research leads to able future research on human health effect of EPFRs and oxidative potential and can be also used to formulate the majors to control EPFRs and OP emissions, suggest the need for further studies on the secondary processing of EPFRs and OP during the lockdown period in Xi'an. .The COVID-19 lockdown had a significant impact on both social and economic aspects. The city lockdown, however, had a positive impact on the environment and improved air quality, however, no significant health benefits were observed in Xi'an, China.

Effectiveness of public policy in reviving the COVID-19 hit economy: Evidences from Kerala, India.

The economic crisis triggered by the COVID-19 urgently required active policy interventions to enhance the revival strategies of the world economy. This paper examines the effectiveness of policy intervention of the State Government of Kerala in India in mitigating the risks caused by the pandemic. The policy effectiveness is evaluated by analyzing the data collected from a sample of 300 beneficiaries with the help of descriptive statistics, ordered probit (OP) model, and semi nonparametric extended OP (SNEOP) model. Our results are assertive with the fact that state policies are effective in reviving the crisis-hit economy as they have primarily helped low-income groups and other marginalized communities. The majority of BPL families, self-help group members, and social security beneficiaries rated government policies as highly or fairly effective. Though the policies are found to be highly effective among those who have suffered income loss, the study does not find sufficient evidence to believe that the government interventions are effective in helping those who have lost their jobs. The level of effectiveness is inversely related to age, education, and family size. Our results suggest that an extensive fiscal package is required to help people recover from the crisis.

Antiviral Activity of Influenza A Virus Defective Interfering Particles against SARS-CoV-2 Replication In Vitro through Stimulation of Innate Immunity.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) causing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) emerged in late 2019 and resulted in a devastating pandemic. Although the first approved vaccines were already administered by the end of 2020, worldwide vaccine availability is still limited. Moreover, immune escape variants of the virus are emerging against which the current vaccines may confer only limited protection. Further, existing antivirals and treatment options against COVID-19 show only limited efficacy. Influenza A virus (IAV) defective interfering particles (DIPs) were previously proposed not only for antiviral treatment of the influenza disease but also for pan-specific treatment of interferon (IFN)-sensitive respiratory virus infections. To investigate the applicability of IAV DIPs as an antiviral for the treatment of COVID-19, we conducted in vitro co-infection experiments with cell culture-derived DIPs and the IFN-sensitive SARS-CoV-2 in human lung cells. We show that treatment with IAV DIPs leads to complete abrogation of SARS-CoV-2 replication. Moreover, this inhibitory effect was dependent on janus kinase/signal transducers and activators of transcription (JAK/STAT) signaling. Further, our results suggest boosting of IFN-induced antiviral activity by IAV DIPs as a major contributor in suppressing SARS-CoV-2 replication. Thus, we propose IAV DIPs as an effective antiviral agent for treatment of COVID-19, and potentially also for suppressing the replication of new variants of SARS-CoV-2.

A Multiplex One-Step RT-qPCR Protocol to Detect SARS-CoV-2 in NP/OP Swabs and Saliva.

Since December 2019, SARS-CoV-2 has spread extensively throughout the world, with more than 117 million reported cases and 2.6 million deaths (Johns Hopkins coronavirus resource center, https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html). Detecting the virus is the first step in diagnosing the infection, followed by quarantine to prevent transmission. Nasopharyngeal/oropharyngeal swabs (NP/OP) and saliva are two specimen types that are most often analyzed to detect SARS-CoV-2 by molecular tests that detect viral RNA or by antigen/antibody tests that detect viral proteins and/or the host immune response against the virus. Compared to antigen/antibody tests, molecular tests are highly sensitive and specific for detecting the virus. A significant drawback is that specimen collection requirements are specific to each test and cannot be interchanged with another test. Some tests are qualified to be used on NP swabs or saliva, but not both specimen types. Even with NP swabs, a test may be qualified to detect the virus only with swabs collected in viral transport medium (VTM) but not in other media. These restrictive pre-analytic steps are disadvantageous in that a lab would have to develop and validate different tests for SARS-CoV-2 depending on the specimen type and collection media, with added setup cost, infrastructure, and training requirements. To overcome these problems, we developed and validated a cost-effective multiplex reverse-transcription real-time PCR assay that can be used to detect SARS-CoV-2 in different specimen types. The assay is highly sensitive and specific, can be used to detect the virus in saliva as well as NP swabs collected in different media such as VTM, saline, and commercial preservative fluid, and serves as one test for all applications. The protocol also describes an optimal laboratory setup and unidirectional workflow for detecting SARS-CoV-2 by RT-qPCR. © 2021 The Authors. Current Protocols published by Wiley Periodicals LLC. Basic Protocol 1: Manual viral nucleic acid extraction from NP/OP swabs collected in different media, and from saliva Alternate Protocol 1: Low-throughput automated extraction on the Qiagen EZ1 Advanced XL machine (1-14 samples) Alternate Protocol 2: High-throughput automated extraction on the Kingfisher Flex machine (1-96 samples) Basic Protocol 2: Multiplex RT-qPCR protocol to detect SARS-CoV-2 Alternate Protocol 3: Multiplex one-step RT-qPCR protocol to detect SARS-CoV-2 with S and E gene probes labeled with the same fluorochrome.

Implementing the new normal in ophthalmology care beyond COVID-19.

The COVID-19 pandemic has altered the clinical landscape immeasurably. The need to physical distance requires rethinking how we deliver ophthalmic care. Within healthcare, we will need to focus our resources on the five T's: Utilising technology, multidisciplinary clinical teams with wide professional talents need to work efficiently to reduce patient contact time. With regular testing, this will allow us to reduce the risk further. We also must acknowledge the explosion of different modalities to train our future ophthalmologists and the global challenges and advantages that these bring. Finally, we must not forget the psychological impact that this pandemic will have on ophthalmologists and ancillary staff, and need to have robust mechanisms for support.

Rapidly progressive organizing pneumonia associated with COVID-19.

We report a case of clinically diagnosed secondary organizing pneumonia (SOP) associated with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). A 70-year-old woman who had been diagnosed with COVID-19 was admitted to Hokkaido University Hospital. Although her fever, cough, dyspnea, and serum C-reactive protein levels improved, she developed rapidly progressive respiratory failure and computed tomography revealed the development of bilateral lung consolidation. Her dyspnea was relieved, and her oxygenation levels and radiological findings improved after commencing corticosteroid treatment. Blood biomarkers for interstitial lung disease, Krebs von den Lungen-6 (KL-6) and surfactant protein D (SP-D), showed different responses during the clinical course of her disease. Evaluation of serial changes in levels of KL-6 and SP-D may help diagnose and monitor COVID-19-associated organizing pneumonia (OP). Clinicians should be aware that SOP can develop in response to COVID-19 and that these patients may benefit from the use of steroids.